Tag Archives: Bitcoin

Shervin Pishevar says Dow Jones may correct back to 2016 levels

Shervin Pishevar has not gained much popularity for his doom-filled opinions on the state of the equity markets and his harsh critiques of the Fed’s reckless monetary policies. But truth isn’t decided by committee. And it turns out that most of Shervin Pishevar’s insights and predictions have been well worth paying attention to.

A bubble blown from hot air

Shervin Pishevar has easily been the most vocal critic of the Federal Reserve’s policies and their justifications for those policies of anyone throughout Silicon Valley. Shervin Pishevar has repeatedly characterized the Fed’s open-market interventions as incredibly risky and their reasoning for those policies as specious. Now, he says that the current stock market woes are the direct result of the Fed’s tinkering in the free markets over the last decade.

Pishevar says that the historically low interest rates, in some cases leading to the ridiculous situation of real negative interest, has incentivized corporations to begin massive amounts of corporate buybacks using those cheap funds as financing. This surge in corporate buybacks, as well as private investors using virtually free money to speculate in equities, has led to one of the most clear-cut asset bubbles in the history of the U.S. stock market.

Shervin Pishevar says that many of the largest companies are now trading at Schiller P/E ratios in the 30s, far higher than historic norms. He says that such heightened valuations make it highly unlikely that future returns will be anywhere near historic norms, with all of the implications that such a scenario has for institutional investors.

Pishevar has also stated that the incredibly low interest rate environment of the last decade has inflated other bubbles, including in the realm of real estate. There, he says, the unaffordability of housing is contributing to a homelessness crisis at the same time that it makes it impossible for young families to form and begin accumulating wealth. Ultimately, says Pishevar, all of these bubbles are slated to be deflated, leaving trillions of dollars in wealth destroyed and possibly sending the economy into a depression.

https://www.caa.com/caaspeakers/shervin-pishevar

Sahm Adrangi Discusses Ad Fraud

Earlier this year, the Kase Learning Conference on short selling featured Sahm Adrangi, who talked to the group about ad fraud.

Sahm Adrangi is the founder and chief information officer (CIO) of Kerrisdale Capital Management LLC. The company was founded in 2009, and in its nine years of operation it has managed to achieve an impressive amount of influence in the industry; Sahm Adrangi says that they manage about $180 million these days. He also adds that it has a history of actively working against fraud, with its skills honed during its early years when Chinese scams were costing American companies somewhere between $10 billion to $20 billion.

Since then they have had experience with other would-be hucksters. For example, Sahm Adrangi mentions a developer in Florida who was trying to sell land for twice its actual value, a trick which they worked against. He recommends that anyone interested look at the Kerrisdale Capital Management LLC. website, where they publish much of their research about the frauds that they investigate.

The kind of ad fraud that he focused on, and the kind which most affects businesses, involves companies buying ad space on websites that are not actually meant for anyone to access; the page features ads but no normal content. Bots are then simply programmed to visit the fake sites and/or click on the ads repeatedly. This gives the impression that the ads have been viewed many times, but in fact the company paying for them is not receiving any benefit, since no potential customers have actually seen them.

“The more ad fraud that occurs, the less the online advertising buyers are going to be willing to spend on online ads,” Sahm Adrangi warned. “And that’s going to drive much-needed revenue from legitimate publishers.”

Sahm Adrangi noted that advertising companies do benefit from this, however, as they still make money from those many fake clicks; as a result, he believes that some of them have been slow to try to counteract this problem. He suggested that these days about 25 percent of the traffic on internet ads is falsified.

https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/news/category?Category=Sahm+Adrangi

Sahm Adrangi: An Overview of the Negative Report Issued

Sahm Adrangi is the chief investment officer at Kerrisdale Capital based in New York City. He holds a bachelors degree of arts in Economics from the famous Yale University. His previous positions include analyst at Longacre Fund Management, Restructuring Investment Banking Group, and Deutsche Bank.

Sahm Adrangi recently issued a negative report concerning the St. Joe Company. Kerrisdale Capital operates as a private investment manager. It published a negative report highlighting its short position at St. Joe Company. This real estate company is targeting to transform the sizeable desolate area located in Panama City Beach to become an attractive destination for businesses as well as retirees. In the report, Sahm Adrangi pointed out that St. Joe Company is not likely to develop the land due to the valuations that it is facing. Much of its land is located in swampy, desolate, and remote areas whereas the St. Joe has already monetized it. The company had foreseen a significant income source. The new retirement sector would have been a high selling community in America. Contrary to this, there is minimal progress made by St. Joe on the interior land. Very few activities and efforts of the building are happening among other things like permit fillings and signs of growth. Sahm Adrangi says that the plans for the interior land in the company were made lie ten years ago and up to date nothing tangible has been accomplished. He, therefore, predicts that the investors who have already suffered enough should be prepared to wait longer before their investments begin counting. This is because the company is still struggling to monetize the land. Due to all those issues faced by the shareholders, the largest investor for St. Joe, which is Fairholme Funds, has suffered some liquidity rules that were enacted in a few months ago. This was significantly contributed by the poor stock selection and this large investor reduced around 90 percent of its assets. Its position was more prominent in the company. Fairholme is therefore expected to reduce its status as a shareholder by half. Kerrisdale is convinced that no level of development can redeem the stock positions.

https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/firm/sahm-adrangi/

Shervin Pishevar discusses how lawfare and price wars are used by tech monopolies

Few people in the country today have had such up-close and personal experiences with the founding of successful tech ventures as serial entrepreneur and financier Shervin Pishevar. Now in his 40s, Shervin Pishevar has been at the forefront of the tech industry since the mid-90s. He has been personally responsible for the founding and incubation of tech startups ranging from Airbnb and Uber to Social Gaming Network and Virgin Hyperloop.

Shervin Pishevar is also one of Silicon Valley’s thought leaders. He runs one of the most popular Twitter feeds of any venture capitalist in the Bay Area. It’s a safe bet that when Shervin Pishevar tweets on a topic of national importance, the most influential leaders in the country are hanging on his every word.

In a recent barrage of tweets, Pishevar laid down some solid arguments for why tech monopolies should be watched very carefully and why it’s likely that they will eventually need to be broken up. As someone who was there throughout the entire early stages of both Airbnb and Uber, Pishevar has seen, up close, the immense perils that new startups face. He says that the tendency of the top five tech monopolies —Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook — to run out or buy out any competitor that looks like they may even possibly pose an eventual threat to their business has become a major problem.

One of the means by which these tech giants can push out competitors or make their businesses non-viable is through the use of a little-understood but highly effective weapon: lawfare. Pishevar cites the ongoing legal battles that Uber has been forced to deal with due to nuisance lawsuits filed by autonomous-vehicle rival Google. Pishevar points out that Uber is a far smaller company, and it has been compelled to waste tens of millions of dollars defending itself in court from spurious claims made by Google.

While Google has virtually unlimited resources, the millions spent by Uber are seriously cutting into its bottom line, taking money away from operations and research and development programs. Through exploiting these asymmetries, the big tech monopolies can drive incipient competition out of markets.

www.shervin.com/